OKAY, WHO BELIEVES THE RECESSION IS OVER?

I just read the following: “The economic recession that had plagued the U.S. economy for the last two years finally ended last year. On October 20, 2009, the U.S. Commerce Department announced that the U.S. economy had grown during the third quarter of 2009, rising for the first time in more than a year.”

How about a confirmation of that?  Well, “Confirming the conclusion of the worst U.S. recession in 70 years, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.5% (later revised downward to 2.2%) during the July-to-September time period, ending a string of four down quarters and registering the fastest rate of economic growth since the third quarter of 2007. This growth continued strong into the fourth quarter of 2009, with GDP rising by 5.7% (later revised downward to 5.6%) and representing the steepest growth rate in six years.”

Folks, I am an Optimist.  I am a “Glass half full” businessman. But I left my rose colored glasses in my other jacket…  the one with wide lapels that has I donated to Goodwill years ago when Jimmy Carter was president.

So I am forced to delve deeper:

Positive as this news was, most economists believe that such a high rate of growth is unsustainable, and will drop to below 3% for the rest of the year. This sluggish growth rate would keep unemployment at or close to 10 for the balance of 2010. As evidence of this possibility, the U.S. unemployment rate, which had peaked at 10.2% last October, fell only slightly to 10.0% in November and December and to 9.7% for January through March. For most of this time, the slight decrease in the unemployment rate does not reflect an increase in jobs, but an exodus from the labor force. All told, the national “underemployment rate” stands at approximately 17.3%. Economists warn, in fact, that as these “discouraged workers” return to the labor force on the promise of finding jobs, the national unemployment rate may even bounce back up again in coming months.

Where did I read all this? Its from the National Economic Report, which comes out quarterly from the IBA, one of the professional societies I belong to.